Is New Urbanism right about retail and rail?

Jenny Schuetz, "Do rail transit stations encourage neighbourhood retail activity?", Urban Studies 52 (2015): 14

The take-away: This study examines whether new rail stations encourage retail activity, an outcome associated with some of the conventional assumptions of New Urbanism. On the contrary, the findings suggest that the areas around new intra-metropolitan rail stations are unlikely to gain retail employment, and may even lose it depending on existing land use patterns. 

Abstract: Over the past 20 years, California has made substantial investments in intra-metropolitan  passenger rail infrastructure, expanding existing systems and building new ones. According to advocates of New Urbanism, such investment should encourage the growth of mixed-use transit-oriented development, defined as a high-density mix of residential and commercial  uses within walking distance of rail stations. Little research to date has examined whether rail investment stimulates retail activity, which is a key component of mixed-use  development. In this paper, I test whether the opening of new rail stations across California’s four largest metropolitan areas is associated with changes in retail employment near the stations. Results indicate that new rail stations were located in areas with  previously high employment density, somewhat outside the city centres. New station  openings are not significantly associated with differences in retail employment in three of  the four MSAs, and negatively associated with retail in the Sacramento MSA. There is weak evidence that areas around new suburban stations serving commuter rail lines are more  likely to gain retail employment, while centrally located, intra-city rail stations see  decreases in retail activity. 

Full article (FREE public access)