Crime and the projects: disproving negative anecdotal evidence about project-based subsidized housing

Ayoung Woo and Kenneth Joh, "Beyond anecdotal evidence: Do subsidized housing development increase neighborhood crime?" Applied Geography 64 (2015)

The take-away: This article investigates whether project-based subsidized housing increases neighborhood crime, in line with anecdotal evidence. To the contrary, it is concluded that subsidized housing developments actually have a mitigating impact on crime. The error of anecdotal evidence might be explained by the fact that subsidized housing tends to be developed in neighborhoods where crime is already prevalent.    

Abstract

While planners and policymakers have advocated the need for project-based subsidized housing, they often face the challenge of strong community opposition due to the negative perceptions of subsidized housing and subsidized households, and the fear that these developments and residents would bring increased crime. This paper aims to extend beyond anecdotal evidence by examining the impact of a popular U.S. affordable housing program, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, on neighborhood crime rates. We estimate the levels and trends in neighborhood crime before and after LIHTC developments, based on crime incidents data from 2000 to 2009 in Austin, Texas, using the Adjusted Interrupted Time Series–Difference in Differences (AITS–DID) approach to clarify the causal direction of impacts of LIHTC developments. Results show that LIHTC subsidized housing tended to be developed in neighborhoods where crime was already prevalent, and contrary to popular perception, LIHTC developments have a mitigating impact on neighborhood crime. These results suggest that LIHTC developments may be an effective tool for revitalizing distressed neighborhoods by ameliorating the “broken windows” problem and reducing neighborhood crime. 

Full article (requires access)