Determinants of urban sprawl in European cities

Walid Oueslati & Seraphim Alvanides & Guy Garrod, "Determinants of urban sprawl in European cities," Urban Studies 52 (2015): 9

The take-away: This statistical study of urban sprawl in Europe constructs two indices to explain, first, city-level changes in artificial area, and second, urban fragmentation. These indices are viewed in light of the monocentric-city model, which “identifies population, income, commuting costs and the value of land as essential drivers of sprawl.” This model can explain city-to-city variation of the artificial area index, and to a lesser extent the fragmentation index.

Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence that helps to answer several key questions relating  to the extent of urban sprawl in Europe. Building on the monocentric city model, this study uses existing data sources to derive a set of panel data for 282 European cities at three time points (1990, 2000 and 2006). Two indices of urban sprawl are calculated that, respectively, reflect changes in artificial area and the levels of urban fragmentation for each  city. These are supplemented by a set of data on various economic and geographical variables that might explain the variation of the two indices. Using a Hausman-Taylor estimator and random regressors to control for the possible correlation between  explanatory variables and unobservable city-level effects, we Mind that the fundamental  conclusions of the standard monocentric model are valid in the European context for both  indices. Although the variables generated by the monocentric model explain a large part of  the variation of artificial area, their explanatory power for modelling the fragmentation  index is relatively low.   

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